Distribution of blackouts in the power grid and the Motter and Lai model

Abstract

Carreras, Dobson and colleagues have studied empirical data on the sizes of the blackouts in real grids and modeled them by computer simulations using the direct current approximation. They have found that the resulting blackout sizes are distributed as a power law and suggested that this is because the grids are driven to the self-organized critical state. In contrast, more recent studies found that the distribution of cascades is bimodal as in a first order phase transition, resulting in either a very small blackout or a very large blackout, engulfing a finite fraction of the system. Here we reconcile the two approaches and investigate how the distribution of the blackouts change with model parameters, including the tolerance criteria and the dynamic rules of failure of the overloaded lines during the cascade. In addition, we study the same problem for the Motter and Lai model and find similar results, suggesting that the physical laws of flow on the network are not as important as network topology, overload conditions, and dynamic rules of failure. Comment: (10 pages, 6 figures)