Were the Federal Courts Biased Against Trump? An Analysis of the Trump Administration’s Failure through the Courts

Abstract

This paper will analyze the possible factors of President Donald Trump’s low success rate in the federal courts concerning administrative policies. Whereas Trump’s predecessors were successful about 70 percent of the time due to the deference courts generally grant administrations, Trump’s success rate hovered at approximately 25 percent. The author used a binomial regression to test for bias among the judiciary, finding that even if some bias is present, it is not the only relevant factor. Additional factors are discussed, including the increase in Republican judicial appointments over Trump’s term and the Supreme Court’s influence on lower courts. The third factor discusses the violation of administrative procedures among Trump’s policies, reflective of many of Trump’s own behaviors.