The crude truth: Exploring oil sanctions evasion and the urgent need for comprehensive data

Abstract

In the year since Russia invaded Ukraine, the question of whether sanctions are an effective tool to coerce states towards “better behavior,” has been at the forefront of policy discourse. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Agathe Demarais advises that “because countries have gotten wise to sanctions, and figured out how to pre-empt them, the West would be wise to look back at what has and hasn't worked when it comes to sanctions and devise a playbook accordingly.”68 But that is impossible given the lack of organized and comprehensive data on cases of sanctions evasion. In 2014, then-President Barack Obama said of the newly imposed sanctions on Russia, “we don’t yet know whether it’s going to work.”69 Almost ten years later, not much has changed. That is why it is necessary to promote more research in this field and on this topic. ¶ In a time when improving the efficacy of sanctions has never been more important, it is crucial to take measures to create more comprehensive and accessible data. The future of sanctions hangs in the balance, waiting for us to take the first step. (from Conclusion)